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Appendix II: Methodological summary

To estimate the number of UK homes subject to a mansion tax in 2016-2020, Cebr had to estimate:

Current property values of homes in the UK

Changes in regional house prices up to 2020

Average national house prices up to 2020

In order to create the ‘nowcast’ estimates of current property values Land Registry’s “price paid” data

was used. When estimating the current value of London properties borough level data was considered.

To estimate the value of homes in Wales regional numbers were used, while for all other regions

constituency level growth rates were considered.

Since the Land Registry dataset only covers residential properties bought in 1995 and later, the resulting

figures had to be scaled up to the full size of the dwelling stock. When scaling the figures, ONS data

regarding the total stock of dwelling was used for all regions save Wales. In the case of Wales, the total

stock of dwelling figure was taken from the Knowledge and Analytical Services of the Welsh Government.

To estimate the changing number of homes subject to the mansion tax post-2016, the £2m threshold

was increased by the projected growth in high-value homes. This rate was determined based on Knight

Frank’s Prime Central London house price index and adjusted for negative impact of the mansion tax on

property prices. The reduction in prime property values was assumed to equal the average annual

mansion tax payment. The change in property values was estimated on a regional basis to assess how

different parts of the UK would be affected by a mansion tax over time.

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